Bulls vs Grizzlies: Can Chicago Cover the 2.5-Point Spread?
Bulls vs Grizzlies: The Spread and Total You Need to Know
Chicago Bulls (-2.5) vs Memphis Grizzlies. That's the line sitting on the board for the 12:00 PM Manila time tip-off at United Center on October 10, 2026. For a preseason game, a 2.5-point spread is tight — and that's exactly where the edge hides. The total is set at 239.5, a number that screams 'pace and space' but also flags the defensive indifference we typically see in October basketball.
Let's be clear: this is not a regular-season slugfest. Coaches are still tinkering with rotations, rookies are fighting for minutes, and veterans are on minute restrictions. But that doesn't mean there's no money to be made. In fact, preseason NBA totals have gone over at a 54.3% clip over the last three seasons, and books know it. The 239.5 number is already inflated by about 6 points compared to a typical regular-season total for these two teams.
So where does the value sit? The table below gives you the full snapshot: moneyline, spread, and total. Use it as your baseline before you shop for the best number. A half-point here or there is the difference between a push and a payout — especially when you're betting from the Philippines and dealing with currency conversion and sometimes slower payout cycles.
| Info | Detail |
|---|---|
| Competition | NBA |
| Kick-off | 08:00 10/10/2026 (GMT+8) |
| Venue | United Center |
| Chicago Bulls form | - |
| Memphis Grizzlies form | - |
| Reference odds | CHI -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 239.5 |
Why the Bulls Are Favored — And Why It Might Be a Trap
Chicago being a 2.5-point home favorite makes sense on paper. They've got continuity on their roster, a healthy starting five, and a coaching staff that actually values preseason reps for the second unit. Last season, the Bulls went 4-1 in preseason games where they were favored by 3 or fewer points. That's not a coincidence — it's a reflection of their depth.
But here's the trap: Memphis is not a typical preseason pushover. The Grizzlies have a young core that treats every game like a tryout. In 2025 preseason, they covered the spread in four of five games as underdogs. Their bench players play with a chip on their shoulder, and that matters when the starters log only 20-24 minutes.
Look at the matchup dynamics. Chicago's perimeter defense was suspect last season, allowing 36.8% from three — 24th in the league. Memphis has three rotation guys who shot better than 37% from deep in 2025/26. If the Grizzlies' bench guards get hot early, the Bulls could find themselves chasing.
On the other side, Memphis' interior defense is thin. They allowed 52.1 points in the paint per game last season, which was bottom-10. Chicago's big men should feast — if they get the touches. Preseason offenses are notoriously iso-heavy, so don't expect pristine ball movement.
Smart bettors don't just look at who wins. They look at who cares. In preseason, the team with more to prove often covers.
The Total: Why 239.5 Is a Trap (Or a Gift)
Let's talk about the 239.5 total. That's a hefty number. For context, the average NBA preseason total in 2025 was 224.5. Books are pricing in a track meet, and there's good reason. Both teams ranked in the top-10 for pace last season. Chicago averaged 101.2 possessions per game, Memphis 100.8. When two fast teams meet in October, the scoreboard operator gets a workout.
But here's the counterargument: preseason free-throw rates drop. Players are rusty. Referees swallow their whistles more often in exhibition games. Last preseason, teams combined to shoot 72.1% from the line — down from 78.3% in the regular season. That's roughly 4-6 points left off the board per game. If that pattern holds, the under becomes live.
My lean? Under 239.5 if you can get it at -105 or better. The public will hammer the over because 'defense is optional in preseason.' That's exactly why the value is on the other side. Books inflate totals to bait recreational money. Sharp money waits for the number to peak, then pounces on the under.
For Filipino bettors, this is where shopping matters. A total of 239.5 at -110 is a completely different bet than 241.5 at -105. Use the table above to compare lines across your sportsbook of choice. If you're on a platform like BingoPlus or OKBet, check their live betting tab around tip-off — preseason totals often move 2-3 points in the first quarter alone.
Key Player Matchups to Watch (And Bet On)
Preseason or not, individual matchups drive spread outcomes. Here are three battles that will decide whether Chicago covers:
1. Bulls' Starting Guards vs. Memphis' Perimeter Pressure
Chicago's backcourt is built on pace and penetration. Memphis counters with length and athleticism. If the Bulls' guards turn the ball over more than 14 times, the Grizzlies will convert those into easy transition points. Watch the first six minutes. If Chicago looks sloppy, live-bet Memphis on the moneyline.
2. Memphis' Backup Bigs vs. Chicago's Second Unit
This is where the game swings. Memphis' bench frontcourt is young and foul-prone. Chicago's reserves are more experienced. If the Bulls' bench wins the rebounding battle by 5+, the spread is safe. If Memphis dominates the offensive glass, expect a close finish.
3. Three-Point Variance
Both teams will chuck threes in preseason. The difference is who makes them. Chicago shot 35.1% from deep last season. Memphis shot 34.8%. That's a statistical wash. But Memphis' rookies are more likely to take bad shots early in the clock. If the Grizzlies hoist 45+ threes, the under becomes a strong play.
For player props, look at points + rebounds + assists (PRA) lines. Preseason PRA lines are often soft because books don't have enough data on minute distributions. If you see a starter with a PRA line under 24.5, that's worth a small play — assuming he plays at least 25 minutes.
Betting Angles: Where the Filipino Peso Should Go
Let's get concrete. Here's how I'm playing this game, and how you can mirror it with your bankroll:
- Spread: Memphis +2.5 (-110). The Grizzlies' bench energy and Chicago's preseason indifference make the underdog live. A $100 bet returns $190.91 on a win.
- Total: Under 239.5 (-105). Preseason free-throw woes and sloppy offense cap the score. $100 returns $195.24.
- Moneyline (small stake): Memphis +120. If you believe the Grizzlies steal it outright, a $50 bet pays $110.
- First Quarter Over/Under: Under 58.5 (-110). Slow starts are the norm in preseason. $100 returns $190.91.
Now, about your sportsbook. If you're betting from the Philippines, you need a platform that offers competitive NBA odds and fast payouts. Most top-tier sites require a minimum deposit of ₱500 to ₱1,000. Wagering requirements for bonuses typically sit at 5x to 8x the bonus amount before you can withdraw. VIP tiers usually start at ₱50,000 in monthly turnover for bronze status, with higher tiers unlocking faster withdrawal processing — often within 2-4 hours instead of 24-48 hours.
Licence numbers matter. A legitimate operator will display a PAGCOR licence (e.g., PAGCOR-2026-XXXX) or a CEZA permit. If you don't see that, walk away. Withdrawal processing times vary: e-wallets like GCash and Maya usually process in 1-6 hours, while bank transfers can take 1-3 business days. Always test with a small withdrawal first.
For this game, I'm allocating 60% of my stake to the under, 30% to Memphis +2.5, and 10% to the Memphis moneyline. That's a balanced approach — not a wild swing.
The Verdict: Trust the Underdog and the Under
Chicago is a fine team. But preseason favorites with tight spreads are historically poor bets. Since 2020, NBA preseason favorites of 3 points or fewer have covered just 44.8% of the time. That's a sample size of over 200 games — not noise. The market overvalues home court and brand names in October.
Memphis, meanwhile, has a roster full of guys fighting for contracts. That desperation translates to effort. Effort covers spreads. And when you combine that with a total that's 15 points higher than the preseason average, the under becomes the sharpest play on the board.
Final score prediction: Memphis 114, Chicago 112. That means Memphis covers +2.5, and the game stays under 239.5. If you're betting the moneyline, Memphis at +120 is a nice value. If you're a conservative bettor, stick with the under and the spread. Either way, don't chase the public money on Chicago.
One last note: preseason lines move fast. The 239.5 total you see now could be 237.5 by tip-off. Use the table above to track movement. If the total drops below 237, the under loses some value. If it climbs to 242, hammer the under. That's the game within the game.